Research and Publications

Traditional trade theories and/or “Trade-in-Goods” predict that exports can generate 100% value-added, which Trade-in-Tasks theories have recently debated. The root of these debates is referred to the existing conventional macro-economic accounting, which is expressed that expenditure components of final goods, including gross exports (GE), equals total value is consumed in each country. It means that a country’s gross domestic product (GDP) is the sum of its final domestic demand, including GE. Therefore, generating 100% value-added in final domestic demand may hold true, but GE, due to double counting, may not generate 100% value-added for the domestic economy. In addition to that, the domestic value-added (DVA) has an excellent property with vertical specialization (VS) in such a way that the sum of their shares is equal to one and, therefore, can measure the degree of VS in trade. In this article, we take this issue as a starting point and, for the first time, try to analyze it with the following questions: What amount of DVA should be attributed to GE from Iran? What is the relationship between DVA and VS? 

Coronavirus is one of the most important pathogens in humans and animals. In Iran, on February 26, 2020, two patients with Covid-19 were seen and confirmed in Qom, and following the resulting epidemic, the government pursued a policy of intelligent social distancing. In this study, based on the historical trend of a set of preventive intervention strategies, the social distance variable is introduced and defined in the range of zero to one. Then this variable is used in the framework of a VSIRD model using the prevalence data of Covid-19 for Iran. The results of model estimation for Iran indicate that the variable of the degree of social distance plays a very important role in the disease outbreak process so that with increasing degree of social distance, the prevalence slows down and the mortality rate and the number of active patients decrease. It seems that reducing social exclusion cannot be recommended until more than 50% of the population has been vaccinated. Therefore, it can be said that reducing the policy of social distancing at the same time as vaccinating the community should be done with great care because its excessive decline and also maintaining beyond its needs can have difficult consequences. Finally, the results of the scenario show that vaccination reduces the peak of the total number of active patients and also shortens the time required to reduce the number of these patients he does.

In this Conference paper, a dynamic evaluation framework is presented on implementing the general policies of Article 44 of the Constitution based on quantitative and measurable indicators. This framework will enable the analysis of the effects of privatization policies due to the possibility of continuous and online updating of indicators and their use to explain the causal relationships between key economic variables and privatization policies. At the same time, considering the macro performance by examining each actor's performance and providing an integrated and comprehensive database provides a suitable tool for policymakers and supervisors to use to have more effective control over the privatization process and make necessary improvements. Apply the privatization process based on these criteria.

This outlook with a comprehensive approach, while explaining the most critical trends in the country in 2022, also predicts the main macroeconomic variables. Variables such as exchange rates, inflation, economic growth and interest rates, the knowledge of which will help to formulate optimal strategies and make critical decisions in business. In addition, the key markets of the economy, including the foreign exchange market, the capital market, the gold market, and the housing market, have been analyzed in detail, and their status in 2022 is predicted in each of the possible scenarios. Knowing the results of these forecasts and understanding the analysis framework provided for each of these markets will significantly help business owners and managers to make the most of the capacity of these markets to manage their liquidity portfolio and cover their business risks optimally.

This project will be carried out to help the Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines, and Agriculture to provide proposals for amending the basic laws leading to pricing in the country. These proposals will include amendments to the Consumer Protection Act, the Trade Union Act, and the General Policies Act, Article 44. The process of policy interaction to implement these proposals through parliamentary reform plans will also be pursued within the framework of this project.

Iran has always been the center of world attention due to its strategic position and considerable resources. Because of this strategic position, Iran has always faced numerous potentials and opportunities, some of which have lost and the other part of which it is failing. Currently, the country is facing serious problems and issues. These issues include lack of capital assets, employment, inflation, and a massive amount of floating capital. One of the most suitable solutions is the development of new roads and cities. This solution is summarized in four phases. In the first phase, the development of metropolises is done by adding a region to the town. In the second phase, the emphasis is on establishing satellite cities between metropolitan areas (such as the Tehran-Zanjan border), which will require investment in the transportation sector, such as high-speed trains. At this stage, the neglected potentials of the sea and ports will be used along with the expansion of road routes in the south of the country. In the fourth and final phase of this project, railways and roads in the country will be developed with regard to the Silk Road project. The intersection of these transit highways, suitable potentials in terms of jobs, facilities, and housing to establish new cities will come.

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Government Financial Management (PFM) looks at how government resources are managed, including assets and expenditures, and explains the immediate, medium- and long-term effects on the economy and society. Therefore, government financial management can be related to the processes, i.e., how the government manages, and the results, i.e., the short-term, medium-term, and long-term consequences of financial flows. In fact, the concept of financial management focuses on both of these dimensions and provides a picture of the reforms needed to develop the country's financial management system.

Financial management systems are embedded in and influenced by a more comprehensive set of processes, systems, and institutions. The government financial management system is part of a broader set of national policy-making processes that guide the allocation of government resources by producing maps and guidelines. Still, these influences vary from country to country, making government financial management a matter for each country. There are differences due to the specific characteristics of each country. Some processes of government financial management systems are the same in many countries. These processes can be listed in 4 stages: budget legislation, budget approval, budget implementation, and budget evaluation, and each of these stages can be In turn divided into one or more main processes.

The first two decades of the twenty-first century have witnessed an influx of innovations and reforms in public financial management. The current wave of reforms is markedly different from those in the past, owing to the sheer number of innovations, their widespread adoption, and the sense that they add up to a fundamental change in the way governments manage public money. This book takes stock of the most important innovations that have emerged over the past two decades in Iran.

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